Nominees are ranked in order of likelihood of winning:

Best Comedy:

1. Glee
2. Modern Family
3. 30 Rock
4. Nurse Jackie
5. Curb Your Enthusiasm
6. The Office

It’s likely that Glee or Modern Family will knock 30 Rock from its current status of Emmy-superstardom (it’s won 3 times for its first 3 seasons).  All three have had ups and downs this season.  Whereas Modern Family owes much of its comedy to dysfunctional family single camera shows (like Arrested Development) and mockumentary style interviews (like The Office), Glee is wholly original.  It has reinvented the teen comedy and done what so many others have failed trying to do: create a popular musical TV show.

Overlooked:

Party Down

It’s a shame that Party Down never got any attention.  In fact, I didn’t hear about it until it was almost over.  The posters in New York made it look like a catering reality show (boring…) until you look closer and realize there’s a plethora of comedy icons in the cast and in recurring guest spots.  Fortunately, you can view all of the episodes on Netflix on demand.  Trust me, you won’t regret it.

Should Win:

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Yes, Glee may have reinvented musical television, but Curb quietly reinvented the “sitcom reunion” this season by having the cast of Seinfeld do a meta-reunion on the show.  The results were hilarious both by Seinfeld standards and Curb Your Enthusiasm.  Larry David seemed to be poking fun at both shows he’s created and the world of entertainment in general.  He’s delivered years of excellent entertainment and I wish he could finally get rewarded for it.

Lead Actress (Comedy)

1. Edie Falco of Nurse Jackie
2. Amy Poehler of Parks and Recreation
3. Toni Collette of The United States of Tara
4. Tina Fey of 30 Rock
5. Lea Michele of Glee
6. Julia Louis-Dreyfus of The New Adventures of Old Christine

I’m really happy with this list, although I do think Courtney Cox Arquette should have gotten her due.  Oh well…she has next year since Old Christine has been cancelled.  Edie Falco is an Emmy favorite, but I would watch out for Amy Poehler whose comedy chops hold up Parks and Recreation (or The Office 2 as I call it).  If voters remember that she was once holding together another show (SNL), they might feel obliged to recognize her.

Lead Actor (Comedy)

1. Jim Parsons of The Big Bang Theory
2. Alec Baldwin of 30 Rock
3. Tony Shalhoub of Monk
4. Steve Carrell of The Office
5. Larry David of Curb Your Enthusiasm
6. Matthew Morrison of Glee

That’s right.  I think Jim Parsons will win for his work on Big Bang Theory.  One of the few traditional sitcoms still around, Big Bang Theory has gotten momentum over the years with help from great guest stars like the nominated Christine Baranski.  While Alec Baldwin is a favorite, I just don’t think this will be 30 Rock’s year.

Should Win:

Tony Shalhoub

I know he’s already won three times, but there’s a reason: he’s really, really good.  His earlier wins came from his amazing gifts at neurosis, psychosis, body parts out of control, and general paranoia—comedy gold!  But as the series ended, Mr. Shalhoub gave us a side of Mr. Monk we had not seen—shades of pain and loss and a reason for his debilitating neuroses.  In the series finale, he finally found the killer of his wife in what can only be described as a heartbreaking, yet hilarious performance.

Supporting Actress (Comedy)

1. Jane Lynch of Glee
2. Kristin Wiig of Saturday Night Live
3. Sophia Vergara of Modern Family
4. Julie Bowen of Modern Family
5. Jane Krakowski of 30 Rock
6. Holland Taylor of Two and a Half Men

These women are all deserving and if there’s one sure thing this season, it is that Jane Lynch will take home this trophy—and deservingly so!

Overlooked:

Vanessa Williams, Elizabeth Perkins, and Jane Adams

Hung was less than a breakout success, so it’s not surprising that Jane Adams got snubbed for her work in the series.  Still, I think she single-handedly makes the show worth watching.  Look out for her in the future.

Ms. Williams and Ms. Perkins, however, will have no future for their respective characters on Ugly Betty and Weeds.  It’s a shame because they were two of my favorites to watch out of any actors on any show.  Oh well.  A great actor cannot overcome the negativity of a show past its prime.

Supporting Actor (Comedy)

1. Neil Patrick Harris of How I Met Your Mother
2. Ty Burrell of Modern Family
3. Chris Colfer of Glee
4. Eric Stonestreet of Modern Family
5. John Cryer of Two and a Half Men
6. Jesse Tyler Ferguson of Modern Family

While Ty Burrell is by far my favorite this year, I think the Modern Family actors will split the vote allowing NPH to finally get the Emmy he’s deserved.  I have no problem with this as I’m sure Modern Family will have many seasons of Emmy love in the future.

Chris Colfer

Hooray for Chris Colfer making the cut this year.  Episodes of Glee that focused on him were the best of the season, probably because Ryan Murphy relates closest to the character.  He gave us inner struggle as he came out to his friends and father and comedy gold with his snarky, deadpan lines.

Snubbed:

Ed O’Neill

The patriarch of two beloved sitcoms (Modern Family and Married with Children) was the one to recommend all the actors submit themselves in the Supporting category.  It seems to me if he had submitted in the Lead Actor category, he would have been nominated over Matthew Morrison, but then again, what do I know about Hollywood politics? There’s always next year, Mr Bundy…I mean, Mr. O’Neill…

Rainn Wilson and Ed Helms

Again, it’s tough to be on a show past its prime. And with Steve Carrell possibly (likely? definitely?) leaving The Office after next season, it’s unlikely that these two beloved comics will get the Emmy love they deserve.

Tracy Morgan

Perhaps Tracy Morgan isn’t the greatest actor on 30 Rock or the sharpest comedian, but he did give his best performances in the show’s four year history.  His impersonation of Monique in Precious was hilarious as was his desire to win the coveted EGOT, which I suppose will be out of reach for both Tracy Jordan and Tracy Morgan.

Guest Actress (Comedy)

1. Betty White of Saturday Night Live
2. Tina Fey of Saturday Night Live
3. Kristen Chenoweth of Glee (episode “The Rhodes Not Taken”)
4. Elaine Stritch of 30 Rock (episode “The Moms”)
5. Christine Baranski of Big Bang Theory (episode “The Maternal Congruence)
6. Kathryn Joosten of Desperate Housewives (episode “The Chase)

Betty White is IT right now.  And that’s fine.  Her work on SNL was very funny.  I can’t wait to watch her Emmy speech.

SHAME ON THE NOMINATORS:

Catherine O’Hara’s performance on Curb Your Enthusiasm as the title character from the episode “Funkhouser’s Crazy Sister” was my favorite performance this year.  She took a small part and ran with it.  Every moment she was on screen, she physically embodied an absurd, interesting, and hilarious character—named Bam Bam by the way.  Shame on the nominators for the snub.

Guest Actor (Comedy)

1. Neil Patrick Harris of Glee (episode “Dream On”)
2. Mike O’Malley of Glee (episode “Wheels”)
3. Fred Willard of Modern Family (episode “Travels with Scout”)
4. Eli Wallach of Nurse Jackie (episode “Chicken Soup”)
5. Jon Hamm of 30 Rock (episode “Emmanuelle Goes to Dinosaur Land”)
6. Will Arnett of 30 Rock (episode “Into the Crevasse”)

That’s right.  I’m predicting a double Neil Patrick Harris win.  And that should finally make fans of NPH and How I Met Your Mother happy.  His episode of Glee was focused almost exclusively on him, which voters of guest actor usually like.  Plus, he can singer better than most (if not all) of the regular cast of Glee.  His snappy exchanges with nemesis Will (Matthew Morrison) were hilarious.

Snubs:

I have to say that I really thought Jon Hamm would get the nomination for Saturday Night Live as his part in 30 Rock was rather small this season.  If anyone got nominated from 30 Rock, I thought it would certainly be Michael Sheen as the bumbling British non-love of Liz Lemon’s life.  I only hope we’ll see more of him in the future.  And what of Jason Alexander?  He was the best used of the Seinfeld gang on their meta-reunion on Curb.

Best Actress:
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Might Win: Carey Mulligan

Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: Christoph Walz

Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Monique

Best Picture:
Will and Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Might Win: Avatar

Best Director
Will and Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Foreign Film
Will Win: The White Ribbon
Might Win: Un Prophete

Best Animated Film
Will and Should Win: Up
Might Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Best Art Direction
Will and Should Win: Avatar

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: The White Ribbon
Might Win: Avatar

Costume Design:
Will and Should Win: The Young Victoria
Might Win: Coco Avant Chanel

Best Documentary Feature:
Will and Should Win: The Cove
Might Win: Food, Inc

Best Film Editing:
Will and Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Might Win: Inglourious Basterds

Best Makeup
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Should and Might Win: Il Divo

Best Original Score
Will and Should Win: Up
Might Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Original Song
Will Win: The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart
Should Win: Almost There, The Princess and the Frog
Might Win: Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog

Sound Editing
Will and Should Win: Avatar
Might Win: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing:
Will and Should Win: Avatar
Might Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects:
Will and Should Win: Avatar

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Up in the Air
Should Win: In the Loop

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should and Might Win: The Hurt Locker

I honestly don’t know enough about the shorts to make any kind of guess. Good luck to all and enjoy the show!

Holy Southern Belle at a football game, Batman!  The Blind Side is nominated for Best Picture of the Year!

This year, the Academy nominated 10 films for Best Picture in the hopes of getting a better representation of the motion picture industry.  With 10 films being nominated, the Academy could consider often overlooked audiences-favorites like Pixar films–WALL-E & Ratatouille deserved some recognition–and critically-acclaimed summer blockbusters like The Dark Knight.  The Academy hopes people will care about the Oscars again and more importantly tune in to the telecast.

I feel the Academy did what it set out to do with this crop of nominated films:

• Avatar
• The Blind Side
• District 9
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up in the Air

These films represent a range of human emotions: from the tension of watching American soldiers in Iraq (The Hurt Locker) to the whimsy of watching an old man fulfill his dream of going on a balloon adventure (Up). Historical events can be treated as comical fantasy (WWII in Inglourious Basterds) or as allegorical science-fiction (Apartheid in District 9).  There are gritty realities like poor Precious and there are fabulous fantasies like Pandora of Avatar.  There’s definitely something for everyone in this crop of films, and I can’t wait to find out what audiences think.  Much discussion is certain to be had in the coming month before the grand finale at the Kodak Theater this March.

God of Carnage was hardly my favorite play on Broadway last year. Like many others, I was enticed by the big name stars (Marcia Gay Harden–who snabbed an Tony for the performance, James Gandolfini, Jeff Daniels, and Hope Davis).  It was definitely an actor’s dream.

Set against a stark red wall and with “carnal” music playing underneath, Gods could have been — and in my opinion should have been– the sort of absurdist interaction that French playwrights are known for.  Instead, absurdist elements were mixed with traditional realist pieces, certainly appealing to the commercial audiences of Broadway.  What ensued were yelling matches that could rival the previous years Tony winner for Best Play August: Osage County.  And trust me, that’s a fierce yelling match.  Ultimately, it was enjoyable, but not worth the $120 that was required to see the four movie stars.

But now Jeff Daniels is returning to the cast to play the James Gandolfini role.  Plus, Janet McTeer who was in the original West End production and dazzled in last season’s Mary Stuart will take Marcia Gay Harden’s role.  Dylan Baker, fabulous in many films including one of my favorites Happiness, will take Daniels’ original role.  And Lucy Liu will make her Broadway debut in Hope Davis’ role.  Just to see Liu’s continued vomitting on stage should make it worth another trip to the Great White Way.

Take a look at Playbill’s coverage here!

The approach of the Director’s Guild Awards (followed soon thereafter by the announcement of the Oscar nominations) has led to numerous interesting conversation topics.  The battle for Best Picture—and, fittingly, Best Director–has come down to a pair of star-crossed ex-lovers.  Of course, I’m referring to James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow (of Avatar and The Hurt Locker, respectively) who happen to have been married.  While the press has hoped to get some juicy “I deserve it more than that bitch/asshole,” the two directors have played it cool–always diplomatic, insisting that the other deserve it more.  That’s because they understand that the road to Oscar is not always based on quality.  It’s also diplomacy.  And both have much to gain from picking up a Best Director and/or Best Picture Oscar statue come March 7.

James Cameron: Avatar

Now being the highest-grossing film EVER, one would think Cameron has everything he needs.  But that would certainly be undermining the “king of the world.”  Cameron never doubted he had commercial appeal, but critics love to deem his work low-brow.  Avatar represents Cameron’s life-work.  He spent nearly 10 years developing this technology, investing both time and money.  An Avatar/Cameron win would certainly represent the industry’s embrace of Cameron’s technology and work.

At the beginning of the Race, Avatar seemed somewhat tied for frontrunner status with Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker.  With the Golden Globe for Best Picture AND Best Director, along with the record-breaking numbers at the box office, Avatar has definitely slid into front-runner status.  Yet, the Producer’s Guild Award for Best Picture went to The Hurt Locker.  Yes, that’s right—PRODUCERS!  They’re the ones who are supposed to care most about the money, yet they chose a tiny film that has barely made any.  Which brings us to…

Kathryn Bigelow: The Hurt Locker

In many ways, The Hurt Locker could not be further from Avatar.  The tiny film was barely released in theaters.  It’s slow. It’s gritty realism. And it’s another film about Iraq?!? But many critics say this is THE film about Iraq.  And that is not something to be taken lightly.

Furthermore. Bigelow would be the first woman in Oscar history to win either Best Director or Best Picture.  Some have claimed that if Ridley Scott directed this film, it wouldn’t be getting this attention.  But, of course, Ridley Scott never would have directed this film.  A woman did, and it’s fabulous!

Other than the box office, The Hurt Locker has nailed all the markers of “Oscar Race” necessities to move forward with a Best Picture win.  Consider the following awards for Bigelow as Best Director:

Boston Society of Film Critics
Austin Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critics
Chicago Film Critics
Hollywood Film Festival (Director of the Year)
Kansas City Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics
Santa Barbara International Film Festival
Golden Satellites
Southeastern Film Critics
Toronto Film Critics
Washington DC Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
National Society of Film Critics

But the noticeably absent award was the Golden Globe which went to ex-hubby Cameron.  A win with the Director’s Guild, composed of more than 1000 members vs. the Foreign Press’s (they choose the Golden Globes) measly 100,  just might seal the deal.

The Director’s Guild Awards are this Saturday, January 30.

The Nominations for the Oscars are announced Tuesday, February 2.

The 82nd Academy Awards presentation will be Sunday, March 2.